Scrap Metal, Recycling, Global Economic and Commodities Report 9/16/24

This is the Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report, September 16th, 2024.

U.S. weekly raw steel production rose to 1.78MT up 4.8% from last year, but down 1.8% year to date. This was on continued slow U.S. manufacturing.

WTI crude oil price rose to $68.65/b., as the Gulf of Mexico storm had rigs shut down. Also, Chinese demand is down vs last year as August EV Chinese sales surged to 54% in August vs. 8.1% in the U.S.

U.S. weekly crude oil production was steady at 13.3Mb/d., just off the recent record high. The surging EV sales in China and good U.S. EV and hybrid sales are lowering oil demand and prices.

The U.S. weekly oil rig count rose slightly to 485 on great productivity per well. Low demand is bringing cautious production increases.

Scrap steel #1 HMS price remained steady in September on a good balance of supply and demand.

Hot-roll coil steel price rose slightly to $34.88/cwt., $698/T on slow U.S. manufacturing.

Copper price rose to $4.22/lb., on improving Chinese demand. Also, on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates .5% which will help growth.

Aluminum price rose to $1.12/lb., $2,471/mt on hopes of positive global demand.

China August industrial production rose 4.5%, which is good, but slowing from 5.1% in July. Railway, ship building and aviation grew the most.

U of M September consumer sentiment rose to 69, the highest since May. Year ahead expectations of personal finances improved, inflation expectations fell and expectations on the economy improved.

U.S. August inflation fell to 2.5% vs last year, the lowest in over 3.5 years. Prices are still high. Some say 2022’s 9.1% inflation was the worst in history. See 1980 at 14.4%, 1974 at 12.3% and 1947 at 19.7%.

U.S. August Producer prices (which is manufacturers’ prices rose by 1.7% vs last year, the lowest in six months. This was below the 3.07% average between 1950 and 2024. The slowing economy is bringing lower inflation.

U.S. 10-year note, bond yield. Mortgage rates and other bank rates are tied to the 10-yr bond. It fell to 3.65% the lowest since May 2023. It fell with the expectation of an interest rate cut this week by the Federal Reserve

Wall Street’s Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1,049 points to 41,394, near the all-time record high. Expectations of an interest rate cut helps the economy. Record number of people now working is spurring the economic growth.

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