Scrap Metal, Recycling, Global Economic and Commodities Report 10/28/24

This is the Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report, October 28th, 2024.

U.S. weekly raw steel production rose to 1.63MT down 2% from last year and down 1.8% YTD on continued slow manufacturing.

WTI crude oil price fell to $67.31/b. this morning which but about half of 2008’s high, 16 years ago. This was on Israel not hitting Iran oil sites and on record U.S. and high global production.

U.S. weekly crude oil production was steady at 13.5mb/d, the all-time record high in U.S. history. This is great for U.S. jobs and helping reduce the rate of inflation.

The U.S. weekly oil rig count fell to 480 on great productivity per well. Also, on concerns that a major production increase would lower oil prices and oil profits.

Scrap steel #1 HMS price was steady at $305/GT with November’s price forecast uncertain.

Hot-roll coil steel price fell to $33.08/cwt., $662/T. This is about 1/3rd the price of 2001’s high and the price of 2004, 20 years ago.

Copper price fell to $4.37/lb. It’s high, but this is the price of 2011, 13 years ago on good demand and the coming Chinese stimulus.

Aluminum price rose to $1.21/lb., $2,675/mt. which is also high, but the price of 2006, 18 years ago. This is on the same coming Chinese stimulus, slowing aluminum production and bauxite supply concerns.

U.S. September durable goods orders fell by $2.2B or .8% to $284.8B. Transportation equipment was down 3 of the past 4 months. A key measure which is non-defense spending, excluding aircraft was up .3%, above the .1% forecast.

U.S. September existing home sales fell 1% to 3.84M annualized. The good news bad news is that the sales price declined. Also, mortgage rates are higher on a good economy which is hurting sales.

U.S. October S&P global composite PMI, a total economy index, of both services and manufacturing. It rose to 54.3 signaling solid business growth, which is services driven. This was driven by confidence in the year ahead improvement and with slowed inflation expectations.

U.S. October S&P global manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 from September’s 15 month low, with under 50 meaning contraction. This means the rate of contraction slowed as inflation cooled mainly due to lower fuel prices.

U.S. October U of M consumer sentiment survey was revised higher to 70.5, the highest in 6 months. Sentiment on current conditions and future expectations both rose.

Wall Street’s Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,162 points to 42,114, but the NASDAQ, which is mostly tech shares, hit a new high. This was on mixed bank earnings, but consumer sentiment improved as we said. Also, lower inflation, record home equity, record number of people working, and record salaries are all positive.

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