US Finished Steel Imports Forecast to Exceed 30 Million NT in 2017

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Based on the import trends during the initial eleven months of 2017, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) has forecast robust growth to finished steel imports by the US during the year. The imports are likely to record 15% year-on-year growth and are likely to surpass 30 million net tons (NT) in 2017.

According to trade statistics published by AISI, the total and finished steel imports by the US during Jan-Nov ’17 totaled 35.63 million NT and 27.64 million NT respectively. The imports of total steel during November ’17 declined by nearly 15% to 2.718 million NT, whereas the imports of finished steel declined even sharply by around 17% over the previous month to 2.126 million NT.

As per data, finished steel imports by the country are likely to total 30.150 million NT, significantly higher by 14.5% when matched with the yearly import total of 26.338 million NT in 2016. The annualized imports of total steel are expected to grow by nearly 17.7% from 33.022 Mt in 2016 to 38.871 Mt in 2017.

The imports from Taiwan, Germany and Brazil are likely to report strong growth during the current year. AISI forecasts 21.2% year-on-year growth in finished steel imports from Taiwan. Germany and Brazil are expected to ship 19.1% and 18.1% more volumes respectively. On the other hand, imports from Japan are likely to witness sharp decline by 13.7%. The other countries to see notable decline in finished steel exports to the US are the Netherlands (-9.3%), China (-3.8%) and Turkey (-3.7%).

Among various steel mill products, Oil Country Goods are likely to report biggest jump in import volumes. The imports are projected to surge higher by nearly 202% from 1.152 Mt in 2016 to 3.478 million NT this year. The imports of Line Pipes are likely to increase by nearly 67% during the year. The other products that are predicted to report notable jump in import volumes during the whole year 2017 are Standard Pipe (+42.4%), Mechanical Tubing (+30.9%) and Ingots and Billets and Slabs (+30.5%).

On the other hand, imports of Cut Length Plates are likely to decline the most in 2017 upon comparison with the previous year, falling by more than 31% from 1.228 Mt in 2016 to as low as 846,591 net tons in 2017. The other products that may witness drop in import volumes during the year are Hot Rolled Sheets (-25.7%), Reinforcing Bars (-21.7%) and Drawn Wire (-2.7%)

The average finished steel imports during the current 3-month period from September to November 2017 based on preliminary imports has declined by 14.2% when matched with the rolling average of actual imports during the prior three months from June to August ’17.