JP Morgan Foresees Surge in 2023 World Copper Mine Output

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The global copper market is predicted to be in surplus next year, driven by solid copper mine production from new or expanded operations. However, the production growth is expected to slowdown in the latter half of the current decade.

According to JP Morgan analysts, the global copper mine production is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2023, including 5.5% allowance on disruption, taking into account the ongoing social unrest in Peru. The projected growth will be mainly driven by Quebrada Blanca in Chile and Quellaveco in Peru, along with some other projects that are nearing completion after Covid-19-induced delay.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a copper market deficit of 114,000 tonnes in 2023. Rising supplies are expected to push the copper market into a surplus of 298,000 tonnes next year. The stockpiles of copper at Congo’s Tenke Fungurume mine (TFM) will be likely to be supplied to China over the forthcoming months.

The mine production growth is expected to witness slowdown after 2025, said Citi analysts. The Chinese copper demand was expected to surge in early-2023, following lifting of pandemic-related curbs, but growth has not been able to meet initial expectations. This has pushed the prices of the commodity lower, it noted.

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