BMI Foresees Higher Aluminum Prices in 2024, Driven by Robust Demand

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): According to BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions Group, aluminum prices will continue to rise in 2024. Strong worldwide demand for the metal is anticipated to exceed supply, and the market is predicted to stay tight.

The research states that the company anticipates a 3.2% increase in global aluminum demand in 2024, reaching 70.35 million tonnes, over the previous year. Up to 63.5% of the world's aluminum demand is expected to come from China this year, primarily due to increased demand from the renewable energy sector in that nation.

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Meanwhile, the supply of aluminum is expected to increase to 70.6 million tonnes annually at a slower rate of 1.9%. The increase of aluminum production will be hampered by the recent disruptions in the raw material market, particularly in China.

It is anticipated that the global primary aluminum market would end in surplus in 2024. However, according to the BMI analysis, the excess will rapidly decrease by about four times, from 384,000 tonnes to nearly 96,000 tonnes.

Aluminum prices will reflect the aforementioned market trends. BMI predicts that prices will rise by an average of 6% this year. Prices are probably going to be supported in the near future by the growing concerns in the raw material market as well as more general economic events. In addition, the price forecast of aluminum has been increased from $2,400/tonne to $2,450/tonne for 2024.