Crisil Foresees Strong Traction to Indian Steel Sector

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Indian ratings agency, Crisil, expects the steel industry in India to gain healthy traction from global supply changes.

According to the latest steel market study report by the agency, ex-China steel prices have posted significant decline by approximately 40% from the peak recorded in April last year of $1,000 per mt on FOB basis, to stable levels of around $570-$590 per mt towards the end of the year. The prices witnessed significant decline in the last month of 2022. Based on the current market trend, the prices are likely to witness marginal decline in the range of 2-4% in 2023-’24, the report said.

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The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict had sent the flat steel prices up by almost 25% in a matter of just two months. However, the prices then cooled off, mainly due to dip in raw material prices, duty on steel exports by the government and rising stock levels. However, the prices are likely to start rising once again, as the input costs have started to surge.

The coking coal prices were on the decline for most part of the current fiscal year. The prices exhibited short-term volatility, driven by concerns over possible supply chain disruptions. The lifting of unofficial ban on imports of Australian-origin coal by China will likely add to this volatility. This may further alter supply chain as well. Meantime, Crisil does not expect Australian coking coal prices to go sky-high during 2023.