Copper Trade Group Forecast Surplus Market in 2021/2022

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The Lisbon, Portugal-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG) published copper market forecast for 2021/2022, which suggests surplus market.

According to ICSG, the world copper mine production is expected to increase by roughly 3.5% this year and by 3.7% in 2022. It must be noted that the mine production had remained essentially unchanged over the past three years. The rise in output this year is mainly on account of a number of major projects which are scheduled for startup in 2021/2022. Only 2 major copper mines were commissioned over the past four years.

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The refined copper production is predicted to surge by roughly 3% each in 2021 and 2022. This follows 1.6% jump during the previous year. The growth will be primarily supported by the overall recovery from the pandemic and the continued expansion of capacity in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The secondary refined production registered a decline by 4% in 2019 and 2020, due to ban on scrap imports by Chinese authorities and constrained supply of copper scrap on account of pandemic impacts. However, the continued improvement in scrap availability is likely to deliver growth to world secondary refined production in 2021 and 2022, ICSG noted.

Meantime, the apparent refined copper use is predicted to remain unchanged in 2021, followed by around 3% growth during next year.