The potential imposition of tariffs will end the current copper pricing dislocation, said David Wilson, commodities strategist at BNP Paribas.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): In light of the Trump administration's planned 25% tariffs on the metal, BNP Paribas analysts cautioned that copper prices are expected to plummet over the coming months.
Prior to this, copper prices in London had risen to their highest point in nine months, trading at $10,000 per ton. At $5.216 per pound, the most traded Comex contracts in New York also reached a record high. Later, though, the rise stalled as a Bloomberg story revealed that tariffs would probably be implemented in the coming months rather than at the end of the year as previously predicted.
The shorter period would result in fewer metal shipments to the United States, BNP Paribas said. By the end of the second quarter of 2025, copper prices will have fallen to $8,500 a ton due to a downturn in demand. According to David Wilson, commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, the current disruption in copper prices will be stopped by the possible introduction of tariffs.
In addition, the bank revised down its growth estimate for global copper demand from 3.1% to 2.3% in 2025. Additionally, it projects a supply excess of 460,000 tons, which is far more than the previous estimate of 124,000 tons.
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