ILZSG Lead Metal Outlook for 2019 and 2020

The world lead mine supply is forecast to rise by 1.76% to 4.7 million tonnes in 2019, followed by 3.9% surge in 2020 to total 4.94 million tonnes.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster):  The 64^th session of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) held in Lisbon, Portugal on 24^th and 25^th of this month provided Lead outlook for 2019 and 2020.

According to forecasts by ILZSG Statistical and Forecasting Committee, the global demand for refined lead metal is likely to fall by 0.5% to 11.81 million tonnes in 2019. Also, the demand is expected to edge higher by 0.8% to 11.90 million tonnes next year. The Chinese demand, which is expected to fall by 1.1% in 2019, will fall further by 0.5% in 2020. The Europe and the U.S. will see 0.7% decline in lead usage in 2019. However, usage will report recovery by 0.8% and 1.2% in the Europe and the U.S. respectively.

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The world lead mine supply is forecast to rise by 1.76% to 4.7 million tonnes in 2019, followed by 3.9% surge in 2020 to total 4.94 million tonnes. The projected increases are mainly on account of mine expansions in India and substantially higher production from Australia. However, the production from Bolivia, Kazakhstan and the U.S. are likely to remain subdued in 2019. India and Australia will be the main drivers of the forecast rise in 2020 mine supply.

The 2019 world refined lead supply at 11.76 million tonnes, will be down by 0.3% from 2018. However, the Group foresees 1.7% rise in supply to 11.96 million tonnes next year.

ILZSG anticipates that global demand for refined lead metal will exceed supply by 46,000 tonnes in 2019. In 2020, it expects the lead market to record a market surplus of 55,000 tonnes.

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