Fitch Foresees Persistent Undersupply to World Copper Market

The Chinese refined copper production is likely to register steady growth from 8.8mnt in 2018 to 11.4mnt in 2027.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The new copper supply and demand outlook report by Fitch Solutions states that global copper market is likely to witness persistent undersupply in the coming years. The global consumption, driven by China, will outpace supply growth, Fitch report says.

Based on Fitch report, global copper demand is likely to register 2.6% annual growth from 23.6mnt in 2018 to 29.8mnt by 2027. Global refined copper consumption is likely to register steady growth over the coming years. The rise in demand for refined copper will lead to deficit copper market over the next few years. Fitch report predicts global refined copper balance at a deficit of 247kt in 2018. Further, the market is likely to remain under-supplied through 2021. However, the ramped-up production from new projects will result in shrinking of global copper deficit over the longer term. Consequently, the market is likely to shift to oversupply.

The Chinese refined copper production is likely to register steady growth from 8.8mnt in 2018 to 11.4mnt in 2027, registering average growth of 3.1% per annum. The Fitch report predicts significant growth in Chile’s refined copper production. The Indian refined copper production is likely to witness remarkable 7.3% growth per annum over the next decade to 1.8mnt by 2027, notwithstanding downside risks. Also, Fitch foresees muted copper demand growth in the U.S. over the coming years.

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