The latest survey report published by Thomson Reuters GFMS predicts further rise in copper market surplus during the year 2015
CANTERBURY (Scrap Monster): The latest survey report published by Thomson Reuters GFMS predicts further rise in copper market surplus during the year 2015. According to ‘Copper Survey 2015’ report published yesterday, the worldwide copper market surplus is likely to rise by more than 26% from 316,000 mt in 2014 to 399,000 mt in 2015.
Rising supply and falling demand growth will add to copper surplus during the year. However, any production cuts by major producers or stockpiling by Chinese state agencies could bring positive surprise to the copper market in 2015. Meantime, the firm expects no recovery in copper prices until the latter half of the year. The copper prices are likely to average at $5,975 per mt in 2015, down 12% from a year ago.
According to GFMS, copper mine output is expected to rise by more than 3% when compared with the previous year to nearly 19 million mt in 2015. The mine output had totaled 18.3 million mt during 2014. The refined output is also expected to post strong growth, despite concerns with regards to secondary supply during the year. The risks of mine closures are likely to subside during the year. The report also states that the long term prospects of supply growth looks extremely disturbing.
GFMS forecasts 3% rise in copper demand during the year. The demand is likely to touch 22.2 million mt in 2015. The demand growth in China is likely to witness slowdown. The annual growth in copper demand by the world’s largest copper consuming country is likely to fall to 4% in 2015, when matched with 6% demand growth registered during the previous year. The demand growth in the US is expected to remain strong. The boost to infrastructure projects may result in increased demand for the metal in India. Elsewhere in the world, the market share of global copper usage by Europe and Japan are likely to remain subdued in 2015.
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